Economic uncertainty abounds, and it’s being felt at the bar in myriad ways. From inflation and tariffs to a general consumer unease, bar operators are feeling squeezed from both their supplier partners and their customers. So far, 2025 has been a wild year economically. Early reports predicted growth for the on-premise this year, with the National Restaurant Association saying in early February that it expected the industry to be driven by a “positive economic environment and resilient consumer spending” in its annual State of the Restaurant Industry report.
In fact, the association predicted the restaurant industry would reach $1.5 trillion in sales this year, an increase over 2024 that would be led by pent-up consumer demand. But things have changed quickly as the year progressed and now, many operators are reporting that economic uncertainty is directly affecting consumer confidence—and in turn, spending—at the bar.
“The bar is often one of the first places to feel shifts in the economy,” says Matthew Focht, a partner at Buyers Edge Platform, a company that operates the supply chain consultant firm Restaurant Procurement Partners. “When inflation rises or uncertainty looms, we see changes in how consumers choose to spend on nightlife and hospitality. The bar business relies heavily on discretionary income, so even modest economic shifts can influence customer frequency, check size, and brand preferences.”
Focht notes that operators are being squeezed by rising costs and consumers are being more selective in spending, which creates a difficult scenario. On the consumer side, he adds that many guests are reevaluating their drinks choices while they seek value. Classics like the Margarita, Old Fashioned, and Martini have a strong following—and updated twists on those drinks are also doing well—but many consumers are wary about trying something new.
“Comfort is key right now, but curiosity hasn’t disappeared,” Focht says. “People are asking more questions about ingredients, quality, and sourcing, and they want transparency and are quick to trade down if they don’t see value. Economic pressure can cause even the most quality-conscious guest to re-evaluate. Bars that succeed in this environment offer flexible, layered menus where value and quality can coexist.”
Some operators are seeing success with the destination approach, highlighting their venue as a special occasion destination to attract higher-end guests. For The Obscure in Los Angeles, this tactic is going well. The Obscure is a hybrid distillery-bar concept that offers a guided cocktail tasting experience in two hour time blocks. Guests pay $50 and get money to have a special experience and create a memory as everyday fun gets more expensive. We designed our space and programming to offer something more than a drink, whether it’s a sense of wonder, a little education, or a chance to try something new. As overall alcohol consumption goes down, when folks are drinking they want it to count.”
To combat economic woes, The Obscure focuses on being a good neighbor and local operator. “Weathering the storm is more than looking out for our bottom line—it’s also looking out for our community,” says distiller and CEO Théron Regnier. “Rising prices don’t just increase costs, they erode confidence. Instead of raising prices to offset inflation, we’ve chosen the opposite approach. By selectively lowering prices and incentivizing return visits, we’re leveraging frequency and economies of scale as our seawall against rising costs. Locals are the lifeblood of any bar, and for us, staying a destination for escape—not another reminder of reality—is everything.”